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Orense SC vs Libertad — Liga Pro 2026

Orense SC
Orense SC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Libertad
Libertad
B. Caicedo 89'
S. Vasquez 45'
B. Caicedo 73'
4/12/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 8Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Orense SC54%
×Draw23%
Libertad23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orense SC
1.79
Libertad
1.08

Orense SC creates 66% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Orense SC
1.55
Libertad
0.86

allows per match

Orense SC
1.31
Libertad
2.02

finishing

Orense SC+0.12scores more
Libertad+0.34scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Libertad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw
77%
Orense SC or Libertad
77%
Draw or Libertad
46%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+
30%
Libertad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals
83%
Orense SC 2+ goals
53%
Orense SC 3+ goals
26%
Libertad 1+ goals
66%
Libertad 2+ goals
29%
Libertad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)
70%
Libertad (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.31 · 6 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.02 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.55 + Libertad defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.79

Libertad attack 0.86 + Orense SC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Orense SC scores more
54%
level
23%
Libertad scores more
23%

Orense SC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
S. VasquezOrense SCOrense SC · M
8.3

Match Events

9'
I. Zambrano
36'
B. Caicedo
45'
S. Vasquez↳ P. Velasco
46'
J. Guisamano← H. Batalla
46'
D. Coronel← G. J. Cortez Casierra
66'
E. Caicedo← A. Chere
69'
M. Bermudez
72'
D. Armas← M. Bermudez
72'
C. Valencia← B. Corozo
73'
B. Caicedo↳ J. Guisamano
79'
D. Armas
82'
E. S. Zambrano Pesantez← V. Burgoa
82'
E. Caicedo← A. Herrera
82'
A. Garcia← J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza
89'
B. Caicedo↳ N. Molina
90+2'
R. Jaramilo← A. Mena

Possession

69%Orense

Shots

13Orense

Pass accuracy

55%Orense

Statistics

OrenseLibertad
Overview
69%Possession31%
13Total Shots6
5Corners3
12Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots6
6On Target2
5Off Target1
2Blocked3
9Inside Box2
4Outside Box4
Passing
69%Possession31%
640Total Passes291
570Accurate Passes210
89%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Orense SC vs Libertad

Orense SC beat Libertad 2-1 in Liga Pro on April 12, 2026.

Goals: S. Vasquez (45'), B. Caicedo (73', 89').

Orense SC controlled possession (69%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio 9 de Mayo in Machala.