Orense SC 0–1 Libertad: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Orense SC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Libertad

E. Caicedo 35'

7/13/2025

Liga Pro · Round 20Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Orense SC54%

×Draw23%

Libertad23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orense SCExpected goals in this matchLibertad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.08

Orense SC

1.79

Libertad

1.08

Orense SC creates 66% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.55

creates per match

0.86

1.31

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Orense SC

1.55

Libertad

0.86

allows per match

Orense SC

1.31

Libertad

2.02

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Orense SC+0.12scores more

Libertad+0.34scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Libertad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw

77%

Orense SC or Libertad

77%

Draw or Libertad

46%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+

30%

Libertad wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals

83%

Orense SC 2+ goals

53%

Orense SC 3+ goals

26%

Libertad 1+ goals

66%

Libertad 2+ goals

29%

Libertad 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)

70%

Libertad (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.31 · 6 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.02 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.55 + Libertad defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.79

Libertad attack 0.86 + Orense SC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Orense SC scores more

54%

level

23%

Libertad scores more

23%

Orense SC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

L. Nazareno

Libertad · G

9.2

Match Events

35'

E. Caicedo↳ Y. Quinonez

46'

R. Luna← M. Mejia

67'

N. Caicedo← A. Quinonez

74'

G. Arturia← G. Achilier

74'

O. Bianchi← A. Mena

84'

M. Bermudez← P. Velasco

84'

C. Gruezo← E. Caicedo

84'

J. Humanante← C. Arboleda

90+2'

90+2'

90+2'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrenseLibertad

Overview

66%Possession34%

16Total Shots7

9Corners1

11Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots7

8On Target5

6Off Target2

2Blocked0

13Inside Box5

3Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

512Total Passes274

437Accurate Passes175

85%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

4Saves8

Discipline

11Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

6Offsides1