Orense SC vs Leones del Norte — Liga Pro 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 10+ matches
Orense SC46%
Leones del Norte26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Orense SC creates 44% more chances
Season form · 105 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under62
- Over38
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Orense SC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Orense SC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 105 matches
Leones del Norte away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Orense SC attack 1.32 + Leones del Norte defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31
Leones del Norte attack 0.80 + Orense SC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.91
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Orense SC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Independiente del Valle
MacaraLeones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
Aucas
Barcelona SC
Guayaquil City FC
Delfin SC
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
LDU de Quito
Emelec
Tecnico Universitario
Manta FCOrense SC
Deportivo CuencaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Orense SC host Leones del Norte on Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 00:00. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2026/2027 season.
Liga Pro: Orense SC 2–0 Leones del Norte
Orense SC beat Leones del Norte 2-0 in Liga Pro on May 9, 2026.
Goals: V. Burgoa (55'), A. Herrera (79').
Orense SC controlled possession (63%) and registered 18 shots to 6.
The match was played at Estadio 9 de Mayo in Machala.