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Leones del Norte vs Orense SC — Copa Ecuador 2022

Leones del Norte
Leones del Norteadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Orense SC
Orense SC
W. Godoy 51'
8/22/2025Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · Round of 32Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Leones del Norte51%
×Draw22%
Orense SC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones del Norte
2.00
Orense SC
1.42

Leones del Norte creates 41% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Leones del Norte
2.00
Orense SC
1.50

allows per match

Leones del Norte
1.33
Orense SC
2.00

finishing

Leones del Norte+0.00on par
Orense SC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones del Norte ↓

Orense SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Leones del Norte or draw
73%
Leones del Norte or Orense SC
78%
Draw or Orense SC
49%

Winning margin

Leones del Norte wins by 2+
29%
Orense SC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Leones del Norte 1+ goals
86%
Leones del Norte 2+ goals
59%
Leones del Norte 3+ goals
32%
Orense SC 1+ goals
76%
Orense SC 2+ goals
41%
Orense SC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Leones del Norte (draw refunded)
65%
Orense SC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones del Norte at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Orense SC away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones del Norte attack 2.00 + Orense SC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Orense SC attack 1.50 + Leones del Norte defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Leones del Norte scores more
51%
level
22%
Orense SC scores more
27%

Leones del Norte at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Leones del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
W. Godoy
Leones
Orense
J. Zubeldía
Manager: J. Zubeldía
Raúl Adolfo Antuña
Manager: Raúl Adolfo Antuña

Copa Ecuador: Leones del Norte 1–0 Orense SC

Leones del Norte beat Orense SC 1-0 in Copa Ecuador on August 22, 2025.

Goals: W. Godoy (51').

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.