Orense SC 0–3 Fuerza Amarilla: Result & Stats

Orense SC

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Fuerza Amarilla

11/11/2018

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 41Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Orense SC44%

×Draw29%

Fuerza Amarilla27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orense SCExpected goals in this matchFuerza Amarilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.91

Orense SC

1.24

Fuerza Amarilla

0.91

Orense SC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 31 away

1.45

creates per match

0.87

0.95

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Orense SC

1.45

Fuerza Amarilla

0.87

allows per match

Orense SC

0.95

Fuerza Amarilla

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orense SC+0.00on par

Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Fuerza Amarilla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw

73%

Orense SC or Fuerza Amarilla

71%

Draw or Fuerza Amarilla

56%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+

20%

Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals

71%

Orense SC 2+ goals

35%

Orense SC 3+ goals

13%

Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals

60%

Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals

23%

Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)

62%

Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.95 · 42 matches

Fuerza Amarilla away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.45 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.24

Fuerza Amarilla attack 0.87 + Orense SC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Orense SC scores more

44%

level

29%

Fuerza Amarilla scores more

27%

Orense SC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff