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Fuerza Amarilla vs Orense SC — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Orense SC
Orense SC
3/25/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 4Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fuerza Amarilla41%
×Draw28%
Orense SC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuerza Amarilla
1.25
Orense SC
1.06

Fuerza Amarilla creates 18% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 42 away

creates per match

Fuerza Amarilla
1.19
Orense SC
1.19

allows per match

Fuerza Amarilla
0.94
Orense SC
1.31

finishing

Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par
Orense SC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuerza Amarilla ↓

Orense SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fuerza Amarilla or draw
69%
Fuerza Amarilla or Orense SC
72%
Draw or Orense SC
59%

Winning margin

Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
18%
Orense SC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
71%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
36%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
13%
Orense SC 1+ goals
65%
Orense SC 2+ goals
29%
Orense SC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
56%
Orense SC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuerza Amarilla at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Orense SC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuerza Amarilla attack 1.19 + Orense SC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Orense SC attack 1.19 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fuerza Amarilla scores more
41%
level
28%
Orense SC scores more
31%

Fuerza Amarilla at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fuerza Amarilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Fuerza Amarilla 1–0 Orense SC

Fuerza Amarilla beat Orense SC 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on March 25, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala).