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Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca — Liga Pro 2026

Orense SC
Orense SC
Preview
20:00
Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
8/16/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 25Estadio 9 de Mayo
Big match
45%
Orense SC
model favours
45%25%30%

88% of Deportivo Cuenca’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Orense SC45%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Cuenca30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orense SC
1.60
Deportivo Cuenca
1.27

Orense SC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Orense SC
1.65
Deportivo Cuenca
1.29

allows per match

Orense SC
1.25
Deportivo Cuenca
1.56

finishing

Orense SC-0.21scores less
Deportivo Cuenca+0.11scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw
70%
Orense SC or Deportivo Cuenca
75%
Draw or Deportivo Cuenca
55%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+
23%
Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals
80%
Orense SC 2+ goals
47%
Orense SC 3+ goals
22%
Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)
60%
Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.56 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.65 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.60

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.29 + Orense SC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Orense SC scores more
45%
level
25%
Deportivo Cuenca scores more
30%

Orense SC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Deportivo Cuenca score first in only 25% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 31% of Deportivo Cuenca’s matches
  • Orense SC fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Orense SC
Balanced
Deportivo Cuenca
Balanced
50%Possession49%
78%Pass accuracy78%
9.7ShotsBiggest gap11.1
1.33xG1.34
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Orense SCDeportivo Cuenca

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Orense SC
4
Draws
1
Deportivo Cuenca
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 60%
3–11–11–02–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
SC
LLDLL
Cuenca
LDLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca — Match Preview

Orense SC face Deportivo Cuenca on August 16, 2026 in this Liga Pro fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Orense SC host Deportivo Cuenca at Estadio 9 de Mayo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.