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Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca — Liga Pro 2026

Orense SC
Orense SC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
5/10/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 12Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Orense SC48%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Cuenca25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orense SC
1.41
Deportivo Cuenca
0.94

Orense SC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 131 away

creates per match

Orense SC
1.32
Deportivo Cuenca
0.85

allows per match

Orense SC
1.02
Deportivo Cuenca
1.50

finishing

Orense SC+0.00on par
Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw
75%
Orense SC or Deportivo Cuenca
73%
Draw or Deportivo Cuenca
52%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+
23%
Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals
76%
Orense SC 2+ goals
41%
Orense SC 3+ goals
17%
Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
61%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
24%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)
66%
Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 105 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.50 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.32 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.85 + Orense SC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Orense SC scores more
48%
level
27%
Deportivo Cuenca scores more
25%

Orense SC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Orense SC 1–0 Deportivo Cuenca

Orense SC beat Deportivo Cuenca 1-0 in Liga Pro on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio 9 de Mayo in Machala.