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Deportivo Cuenca vs Orense SC — Liga Pro 2026

Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Orense SC
Orense SC
8/10/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 2Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca51%
×Draw26%
Orense SC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cuenca
1.49
Orense SC
0.91

Deportivo Cuenca creates 64% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 104 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca
1.55
Orense SC
0.69

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca
1.14
Orense SC
1.43

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par
Orense SC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Orense SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw
77%
Deportivo Cuenca or Orense SC
74%
Draw or Orense SC
49%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
26%
Orense SC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
77%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
44%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
19%
Orense SC 1+ goals
60%
Orense SC 2+ goals
23%
Orense SC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
69%
Orense SC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 130 matches

Orense SC away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.43 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.55 + Orense SC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.49

Orense SC attack 0.69 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more
51%
level
26%
Orense SC scores more
23%

Deportivo Cuenca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Deportivo Cuenca 1–2 Orense SC

Orense SC beat Deportivo Cuenca 2-1 in Liga Pro on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro in Cuenca.