Orense SC 0–0 CD Olmedo: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Orense SC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CD Olmedo

7/17/2021

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 15Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Orense SC55%

×Draw23%

CD Olmedo22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orense SCExpected goals in this matchCD Olmedo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.07

Orense SC

1.83

CD Olmedo

1.07

Orense SC creates 71% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 45 away

1.32

creates per match

1.13

1.02

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Orense SC

1.32

CD Olmedo

1.13

allows per match

Orense SC

1.02

CD Olmedo

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orense SC+0.00on par

CD Olmedo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

CD Olmedo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw

78%

Orense SC or CD Olmedo

77%

Draw or CD Olmedo

45%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+

31%

CD Olmedo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals

84%

Orense SC 2+ goals

54%

Orense SC 3+ goals

28%

CD Olmedo 1+ goals

66%

CD Olmedo 2+ goals

29%

CD Olmedo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)

71%

CD Olmedo (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 105 matches

CD Olmedo away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.32 + CD Olmedo defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

CD Olmedo attack 1.13 + Orense SC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Orense SC scores more

55%

level

23%

CD Olmedo scores more

22%

Orense SC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff