CD Olmedo 0–2 Orense SC: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

CD Olmedo

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Orense SC

11/28/2021

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 15Estadio Olímpico de Riobamba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

CD Olmedo38%

×Draw28%

Orense SC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD OlmedoExpected goals in this matchOrense SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.14

CD Olmedo

1.23

Orense SC

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 104 away

1.04

creates per match

0.69

1.58

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

CD Olmedo

1.04

Orense SC

0.69

allows per match

CD Olmedo

1.58

Orense SC

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Olmedo+0.00on par

Orense SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Olmedo ↓

Orense SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CD Olmedo or draw

66%

CD Olmedo or Orense SC

72%

Draw or Orense SC

62%

Winning margin

CD Olmedo wins by 2+

17%

Orense SC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

CD Olmedo 1+ goals

71%

CD Olmedo 2+ goals

35%

CD Olmedo 3+ goals

13%

Orense SC 1+ goals

68%

Orense SC 2+ goals

32%

Orense SC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CD Olmedo (draw refunded)

53%

Orense SC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Olmedo at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

Orense SC away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.43 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Olmedo attack 1.04 + Orense SC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Orense SC attack 0.69 + CD Olmedo defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CD Olmedo scores more

38%

level

28%

Orense SC scores more

34%

CD Olmedo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CD Olmedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff