Orense SC 1–2 Barcelona SC: Result & Stats

Orense SC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Barcelona SC

11/9/2025

Liga Pro · Championship Group - 5Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Orense SC38%

×Draw27%

Barcelona SC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orense SCExpected goals in this matchBarcelona SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.18

Orense SC

1.25

Barcelona SC

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 133 away

1.32

creates per match

1.34

1.02

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Orense SC

1.32

Barcelona SC

1.34

allows per match

Orense SC

1.02

Barcelona SC

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orense SC+0.00on par

Barcelona SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Barcelona SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw

65%

Orense SC or Barcelona SC

73%

Draw or Barcelona SC

62%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+

17%

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals

71%

Orense SC 2+ goals

36%

Orense SC 3+ goals

13%

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

69%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

33%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)

52%

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 105 matches

Barcelona SC away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.32 + Barcelona SC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Barcelona SC attack 1.34 + Orense SC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Orense SC scores more

38%

level

27%

Barcelona SC scores more

35%

Orense SC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff