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Barcelona SC vs Orense SC — Liga Pro 2026

Barcelona SC
Barcelona SC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Orense SC
Orense SC
12/14/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Championship Group - 9Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Barcelona SC58%
×Draw24%
Orense SC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona SC
1.65
Orense SC
0.77

Barcelona SC creates 114% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 104 away

creates per match

Barcelona SC
1.87
Orense SC
0.69

allows per match

Barcelona SC
0.85
Orense SC
1.43

finishing

Barcelona SC+0.00on par
Orense SC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona SC ↓

Orense SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Barcelona SC or draw
83%
Barcelona SC or Orense SC
76%
Draw or Orense SC
42%

Winning margin

Barcelona SC wins by 2+
32%
Orense SC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Barcelona SC 1+ goals
81%
Barcelona SC 2+ goals
49%
Barcelona SC 3+ goals
23%
Orense SC 1+ goals
54%
Orense SC 2+ goals
18%
Orense SC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)
77%
Orense SC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona SC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.85 · 133 matches

Orense SC away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.43 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona SC attack 1.87 + Orense SC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.65

Orense SC attack 0.69 + Barcelona SC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Barcelona SC scores more
58%
level
24%
Orense SC scores more
17%

Barcelona SC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barcelona SC vs Orense SC

Barcelona SC beat Orense SC 2-1 in Liga Pro on December 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha in Guayaquil.