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Orenburg vs PFC Sochi — Cup 2019

Orenburg
Orenburg
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi
8/9/2023CupCup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 2Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Orenburg38%
×Draw23%
PFC Sochi40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg
1.67
PFC Sochi
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

creates per match

Orenburg
1.71
PFC Sochi
1.31

allows per match

Orenburg
2.12
PFC Sochi
1.62

finishing

Orenburg+0.00on par
PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg ↓

PFC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Orenburg or draw
60%
Orenburg or PFC Sochi
77%
Draw or PFC Sochi
62%

Winning margin

Orenburg wins by 2+
19%
PFC Sochi wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Orenburg 1+ goals
81%
Orenburg 2+ goals
50%
Orenburg 3+ goals
23%
PFC Sochi 1+ goals
82%
PFC Sochi 2+ goals
51%
PFC Sochi 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Orenburg (draw refunded)
49%
PFC Sochi (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg attack 1.71 + PFC Sochi defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.67

PFC Sochi attack 1.31 + Orenburg defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Orenburg scores more
38%
level
23%
PFC Sochi scores more
40%

PFC Sochi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Orenburg 2–0 PFC Sochi

Orenburg beat PFC Sochi 2-0 in Cup on August 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.