Orenburg 4–1 PFC Sochi: Result & Stats

Orenburg

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

PFC Sochi

10/1/2022

Premier League · Round 11Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Orenburg46%

×Draw26%

PFC Sochi29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrenburgExpected goals in this matchPFC Sochi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.14

Orenburg

1.52

PFC Sochi

1.14

Orenburg creates 33% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 89 away

1.39

creates per match

1.08

1.20

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Orenburg

1.39

PFC Sochi

1.08

allows per match

Orenburg

1.20

PFC Sochi

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orenburg+0.00on par

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg ↓

PFC Sochi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Orenburg or draw

71%

Orenburg or PFC Sochi

74%

Draw or PFC Sochi

54%

Winning margin

Orenburg wins by 2+

23%

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Orenburg 1+ goals

78%

Orenburg 2+ goals

45%

Orenburg 3+ goals

20%

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

68%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

32%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Orenburg (draw refunded)

62%

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 89 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg attack 1.39 + PFC Sochi defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

PFC Sochi attack 1.08 + Orenburg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Orenburg scores more

46%

level

26%

PFC Sochi scores more

29%

Orenburg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff