Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Orenburg vs Irtysh Omsk — First League 2018

Orenburg
Orenburg
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
11/11/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Orenburg57%
×Draw25%
Irtysh Omsk19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg
1.64
Irtysh Omsk
0.83

Orenburg creates 98% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 21 away

creates per match

Orenburg
1.85
Irtysh Omsk
0.86

allows per match

Orenburg
0.80
Irtysh Omsk
1.43

finishing

Orenburg+0.00on par
Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg ↓

Irtysh Omsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Orenburg or draw
81%
Orenburg or Irtysh Omsk
75%
Draw or Irtysh Omsk
43%

Winning margin

Orenburg wins by 2+
31%
Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Orenburg 1+ goals
81%
Orenburg 2+ goals
49%
Orenburg 3+ goals
23%
Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
56%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
20%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Orenburg (draw refunded)
75%
Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 40 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg attack 1.85 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.64

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.86 + Orenburg defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Orenburg scores more
57%
level
25%
Irtysh Omsk scores more
19%

Orenburg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orenburg vs Irtysh Omsk

Orenburg and Irtysh Omsk drew 0-0 in First League on November 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.