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Irtysh Omsk vs Orenburg — First League 2018

Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Orenburg
Orenburg
5/8/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 41Red Star Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Irtysh Omsk18%
×Draw25%
Orenburg58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irtysh Omsk
0.76
Orenburg
1.61

Orenburg creates 112% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 40 away

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk
0.57
Orenburg
1.70

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk
1.52
Orenburg
0.95

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par
Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Orenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw
42%
Irtysh Omsk or Orenburg
75%
Draw or Orenburg
82%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
5%
Orenburg wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
53%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
18%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
4%
Orenburg 1+ goals
80%
Orenburg 2+ goals
48%
Orenburg 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
23%
Orenburg (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

Orenburg away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.57 + Orenburg defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.76

Orenburg attack 1.70 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more
18%
level
25%
Orenburg scores more
58%

Orenburg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Irtysh Omsk 0–4 Orenburg

Orenburg beat Irtysh Omsk 4-0 in First League on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Red Star Stadium in Omsk.