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Orenburg vs Dinamo Bryansk — First League 2018

Orenburg
Orenburg
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
5/15/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 42Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Orenburg65%
×Draw22%
Dinamo Bryansk13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg
1.78
Dinamo Bryansk
0.64

Orenburg creates 178% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 21 away

creates per match

Orenburg
1.85
Dinamo Bryansk
0.48

allows per match

Orenburg
0.80
Dinamo Bryansk
1.71

finishing

Orenburg+0.00on par
Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Orenburg or draw
87%
Orenburg or Dinamo Bryansk
78%
Draw or Dinamo Bryansk
35%

Winning margin

Orenburg wins by 2+
38%
Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Orenburg 1+ goals
83%
Orenburg 2+ goals
53%
Orenburg 3+ goals
26%
Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
47%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
14%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Orenburg (draw refunded)
83%
Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 40 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg attack 1.85 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.78

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.48 + Orenburg defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Orenburg scores more
65%
level
22%
Dinamo Bryansk scores more
13%

Orenburg at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Orenburg 3–2 Dinamo Bryansk

Orenburg beat Dinamo Bryansk 3-2 in First League on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.