Dinamo Bryansk 0–1 Orenburg: Result & Stats

Dinamo Bryansk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Orenburg

J. Fameyeh 59'

8/1/2020

First League · Round 1Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk21%

×Draw26%

Orenburg53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BryanskExpected goals in this matchOrenburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.50

Dinamo Bryansk

0.83

Orenburg

1.50

Orenburg creates 81% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 40 away

0.71

creates per match

1.70

1.29

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk

0.71

Orenburg

1.70

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk

1.29

Orenburg

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Orenburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–115%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw

47%

Dinamo Bryansk or Orenburg

74%

Draw or Orenburg

79%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

7%

Orenburg wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

56%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

20%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

5%

Orenburg 1+ goals

78%

Orenburg 2+ goals

44%

Orenburg 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

28%

Orenburg (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Orenburg away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.71 + Orenburg defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.83

Orenburg attack 1.70 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

21%

level

26%

Orenburg scores more

53%

Orenburg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

M. Sivakov

23'

V. Drogunov

46'

Y. Pershin← P. Baranov

46'

A. Ukomskiy← V. Drogunov

48'

59'

68'

77'

82'

A. Skvortsov← J. Fameyeh

87'

A. Dzhumaev← N. Maraev

87'

A. Rudenko← A. Klimovich

90'

G. Chirkin

Dinamo

Orenburg

38

▼

13

3

12

31

6

32

5

55

11

20

⚽

▼

1

7

39

21

14

▼

Sorokin

26

Khaymanov

86

Chirkin

10

▼

Drogunov

9

▼

Maraev

8

▼

Baranov

45

Votinov

Manager: A. Gorbachev

46'▲Y. Pershin←▼P. Baranov

46'▲A. Ukomskiy←▼V. Drogunov

68'▲A. Pazin←▼V. Sorokin

87'▲A. Dzhumaev←▼N. Maraev

Dinamo Bryansk substitutes

33Pershin91Ukomskiy30Pazin11Dzhumaev3Luppa12Sapaev16Pikatov20Pikatov23Shebanov95Vambolt44Valikaev

Manager: I. Aytkulov

82'▲A. Skvortsov←▼J. Fameyeh

87'▲A. Rudenko←▼A. Klimovich

Orenburg substitutes

92Skvortsov1Rudenko42Lapshov57Bolotov

First League: Dinamo Bryansk 0–1 Orenburg

Orenburg beat Dinamo Bryansk 1-0 in First League on August 1, 2020.

Goals: J. Fameyeh (59').

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Bryansk.

Dinamo Bryansk vs Orenburg — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Dinamo Bryansk 0–1 Orenburg