Orenburg 1–0 Baltika: Result & Stats

Orenburg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Baltika

3/10/2024

Premier League · Round 20Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Orenburg39%

×Draw28%

Baltika34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrenburgExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.15

Orenburg

1.26

Baltika

1.15

Orenburg creates 10% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 30 away

1.39

creates per match

1.10

1.20

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Orenburg

1.39

Baltika

1.10

allows per match

Orenburg

1.20

Baltika

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orenburg+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Orenburg or draw

66%

Orenburg or Baltika

72%

Draw or Baltika

61%

Winning margin

Orenburg wins by 2+

17%

Baltika wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Orenburg 1+ goals

72%

Orenburg 2+ goals

36%

Orenburg 3+ goals

13%

Baltika 1+ goals

68%

Baltika 2+ goals

32%

Baltika 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Orenburg (draw refunded)

54%

Baltika (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 89 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg attack 1.39 + Baltika defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Baltika attack 1.10 + Orenburg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Orenburg scores more

39%

level

28%

Baltika scores more

34%

Orenburg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff