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Baltika vs FC Orenburg — Premier League 2018

Baltika
Baltika
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
8/3/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Rostec Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Baltika51%
×Draw25%
FC Orenburg24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.58
FC Orenburg
1.01

Baltika creates 56% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 91 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.27
FC Orenburg
1.05

allows per match

Baltika
0.97
FC Orenburg
1.89

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
FC Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

FC Orenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
76%
Baltika or FC Orenburg
75%
Draw or FC Orenburg
49%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
26%
FC Orenburg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
79%
Baltika 2+ goals
47%
Baltika 3+ goals
21%
FC Orenburg 1+ goals
64%
FC Orenburg 2+ goals
27%
FC Orenburg 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
68%
FC Orenburg (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

FC Orenburg away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.89 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + FC Orenburg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.58

FC Orenburg attack 1.05 + Baltika defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Baltika scores more
51%
level
25%
FC Orenburg scores more
24%

Baltika at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Baltika 3–2 FC Orenburg

Baltika beat FC Orenburg 3-2 in Premier League on August 3, 2025.

The match was played at Rostec Arena in Kaliningrad.