Orenburg 2–1 Alaniya Vladikavkaz: Result & Stats

Orenburg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

8/26/2020

Cup · 3rd RoundStadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Orenburg38%

×Draw23%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrenburgExpected goals in this matchAlaniya Vladikavkaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.73

Orenburg

1.69

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

1.71

creates per match

1.33

2.12

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Orenburg

1.71

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.33

allows per match

Orenburg

2.12

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orenburg+0.00on par

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Orenburg or draw

61%

Orenburg or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

77%

Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

62%

Winning margin

Orenburg wins by 2+

19%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Orenburg 1+ goals

82%

Orenburg 2+ goals

50%

Orenburg 3+ goals

24%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

82%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

52%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Orenburg (draw refunded)

49%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg attack 1.71 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.33 + Orenburg defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Orenburg scores more

38%

level

23%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

39%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff