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Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Orenburg — First League 2018

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Orenburg
Orenburg
10/9/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz32%
×Draw26%
Orenburg42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.26
Orenburg
1.47

Orenburg creates 17% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 40 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.57
Orenburg
1.70

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24
Orenburg
0.95

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par
Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Orenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw
58%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Orenburg
74%
Draw or Orenburg
68%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
14%
Orenburg wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
72%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
36%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
13%
Orenburg 1+ goals
77%
Orenburg 2+ goals
43%
Orenburg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
44%
Orenburg (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

Orenburg away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + Orenburg defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.26

Orenburg attack 1.70 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
32%
level
26%
Orenburg scores more
42%

Orenburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1–0 Orenburg

Alaniya Vladikavkaz beat Orenburg 1-0 in First League on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova in Groznyi.