Orenburg U19 0–1 Fakel U19: Result & Stats

Orenburg U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fakel U19

4/7/2023

Youth Championship · Lower Table Round - 4Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Orenburg U1928%

×Draw23%

Fakel U1949%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orenburg U19Expected goals in this matchFakel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.77

Orenburg U19

1.27

Fakel U19

1.77

Fakel U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 60 away

0.78

creates per match

1.12

2.41

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Orenburg U19

0.78

Fakel U19

1.12

allows per match

Orenburg U19

2.41

Fakel U19

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orenburg U19+0.00on par

Fakel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg U19 ↓

Fakel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Orenburg U19 or draw

51%

Orenburg U19 or Fakel U19

77%

Draw or Fakel U19

72%

Winning margin

Orenburg U19 wins by 2+

12%

Fakel U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Orenburg U19 1+ goals

72%

Orenburg U19 2+ goals

36%

Orenburg U19 3+ goals

14%

Fakel U19 1+ goals

83%

Fakel U19 2+ goals

53%

Fakel U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Orenburg U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Fakel U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg U19 at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 37 matches

Fakel U19 away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.75 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg U19 attack 0.78 + Fakel U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.27

Fakel U19 attack 1.12 + Orenburg U19 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Orenburg U19 scores more

28%

level

23%

Fakel U19 scores more

49%

Fakel U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fakel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff