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Fakel U19 vs Orenburg U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Fakel U19
Fakel U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Orenburg U19
Orenburg U19
5/12/2023Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Lower Table Round - 9Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Fakel U1961%
×Draw21%
Orenburg U1918%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel U19
2.06
Orenburg U19
1.02

Fakel U19 creates 102% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 38 away

creates per match

Fakel U19
1.47
Orenburg U19
0.79

allows per match

Fakel U19
1.25
Orenburg U19
2.66

finishing

Fakel U19+0.00on par
Orenburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel U19 ↓

Orenburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fakel U19 or draw
82%
Fakel U19 or Orenburg U19
79%
Draw or Orenburg U19
39%

Winning margin

Fakel U19 wins by 2+
37%
Orenburg U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Fakel U19 1+ goals
87%
Fakel U19 2+ goals
61%
Fakel U19 3+ goals
34%
Orenburg U19 1+ goals
64%
Orenburg U19 2+ goals
27%
Orenburg U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fakel U19 (draw refunded)
77%
Orenburg U19 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel U19 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

Orenburg U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel U19 attack 1.47 + Orenburg U19 defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 2.06

Orenburg U19 attack 0.79 + Fakel U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Fakel U19 scores more
61%
level
21%
Orenburg U19 scores more
18%

Fakel U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Fakel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fakel U19 vs Orenburg U19

Fakel U19 beat Orenburg U19 2-1 in Youth Championship on May 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh in Voronezh.