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Orenburg II vs Lada Dimitrovgrad — Second League - Group 4 2020

Orenburg II
Orenburg II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Lada Dimitrovgrad
Lada Dimitrovgrad
10/3/2020Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Orenburg II34%
×Draw24%
Lada Dimitrovgrad42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg II
1.42
Lada Dimitrovgrad
1.59

Lada Dimitrovgrad creates 12% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 14 away

creates per match

Orenburg II
1.33
Lada Dimitrovgrad
1.50

allows per match

Orenburg II
1.68
Lada Dimitrovgrad
1.50

finishing

Orenburg II+0.00on par
Lada Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg II ↓

Lada Dimitrovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Orenburg II or draw
58%
Orenburg II or Lada Dimitrovgrad
76%
Draw or Lada Dimitrovgrad
66%

Winning margin

Orenburg II wins by 2+
16%
Lada Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Orenburg II 1+ goals
76%
Orenburg II 2+ goals
41%
Orenburg II 3+ goals
17%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals
80%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals
47%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Orenburg II (draw refunded)
45%
Lada Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.68 · 84 matches

Lada Dimitrovgrad away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg II attack 1.33 + Lada Dimitrovgrad defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Lada Dimitrovgrad attack 1.50 + Orenburg II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Orenburg II scores more
34%
level
24%
Lada Dimitrovgrad scores more
42%

Lada Dimitrovgrad at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lada Dimitrovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orenburg II vs Lada Dimitrovgrad

Lada Dimitrovgrad beat Orenburg II 3-0 in Second League - Group 4 on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.