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Lada Dimitrovgrad vs Orenburg II — Second League - Group 4 2020

Lada Dimitrovgrad
Lada Dimitrovgrad
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Orenburg II
Orenburg II
4/21/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Stadion Start

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lada Dimitrovgrad48%
×Draw28%
Orenburg II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lada Dimitrovgrad
1.36
Orenburg II
0.88

Lada Dimitrovgrad creates 55% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 83 away

creates per match

Lada Dimitrovgrad
0.86
Orenburg II
0.83

allows per match

Lada Dimitrovgrad
0.93
Orenburg II
1.87

finishing

Lada Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par
Orenburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lada Dimitrovgrad ↓

Orenburg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lada Dimitrovgrad or draw
76%
Lada Dimitrovgrad or Orenburg II
72%
Draw or Orenburg II
52%

Winning margin

Lada Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+
23%
Orenburg II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lada Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals
74%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals
39%
Lada Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals
16%
Orenburg II 1+ goals
59%
Orenburg II 2+ goals
22%
Orenburg II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lada Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)
66%
Orenburg II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lada Dimitrovgrad at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Orenburg II away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.87 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lada Dimitrovgrad attack 0.86 + Orenburg II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.36

Orenburg II attack 0.83 + Lada Dimitrovgrad defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lada Dimitrovgrad scores more
48%
level
28%
Orenburg II scores more
24%

Lada Dimitrovgrad at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lada Dimitrovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Lada Dimitrovgrad 0–1 Orenburg II

Orenburg II beat Lada Dimitrovgrad 1-0 in Second League - Group 4 on April 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Start in Ulyanovsk.