Örebro Syrianska 1–0 IK Frej: Result & Stats

Örebro Syrianska

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

IK Frej

9/19/2020

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 18Örnsro IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Örebro Syrianska44%

×Draw24%

IK Frej32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Örebro SyrianskaExpected goals in this matchIK Frej

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.42

Örebro Syrianska

1.69

IK Frej

1.42

Örebro Syrianska creates 19% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 15 away

1.26

creates per match

1.40

1.44

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Örebro Syrianska

1.26

IK Frej

1.40

allows per match

Örebro Syrianska

1.44

IK Frej

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Örebro Syrianska+0.00on par

IK Frej+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Örebro Syrianska ↓

IK Frej →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Örebro Syrianska or draw

68%

Örebro Syrianska or IK Frej

76%

Draw or IK Frej

56%

Winning margin

Örebro Syrianska wins by 2+

23%

IK Frej wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Örebro Syrianska 1+ goals

82%

Örebro Syrianska 2+ goals

50%

Örebro Syrianska 3+ goals

24%

IK Frej 1+ goals

76%

IK Frej 2+ goals

41%

IK Frej 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Örebro Syrianska (draw refunded)

58%

IK Frej (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Örebro Syrianska at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.44 · 90 matches

IK Frej away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Örebro Syrianska attack 1.26 + IK Frej defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.69

IK Frej attack 1.40 + Örebro Syrianska defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Örebro Syrianska scores more

44%

level

24%

IK Frej scores more

32%

Örebro Syrianska at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Örebro Syrianska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff