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IK Frej vs Örebro Syrianska — Ettan - Norra 2019

IK Frej
IK Frej
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Örebro Syrianska
Örebro Syrianska
8/8/2020Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 10Vikingavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

IK Frej49%
×Draw22%
Örebro Syrianska29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IK Frej
1.93
Örebro Syrianska
1.44

IK Frej creates 34% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 90 away

creates per match

IK Frej
1.87
Örebro Syrianska
1.40

allows per match

IK Frej
1.47
Örebro Syrianska
1.98

finishing

IK Frej+0.00on par
Örebro Syrianska+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK Frej ↓

Örebro Syrianska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

IK Frej or draw
71%
IK Frej or Örebro Syrianska
78%
Draw or Örebro Syrianska
51%

Winning margin

IK Frej wins by 2+
28%
Örebro Syrianska wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

IK Frej 1+ goals
85%
IK Frej 2+ goals
57%
IK Frej 3+ goals
30%
Örebro Syrianska 1+ goals
76%
Örebro Syrianska 2+ goals
42%
Örebro Syrianska 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

IK Frej (draw refunded)
63%
Örebro Syrianska (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK Frej at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Örebro Syrianska away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.98 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK Frej attack 1.87 + Örebro Syrianska defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.93

Örebro Syrianska attack 1.40 + IK Frej defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

IK Frej scores more
49%
level
22%
Örebro Syrianska scores more
29%

IK Frej at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "IK Frej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IK Frej vs Örebro Syrianska

IK Frej beat Örebro Syrianska 4-0 in Ettan - Norra on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Vikingavallen in Täby.