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Örebro Syrianska vs Boden — Ettan - Norra 2019

Örebro Syrianska
Örebro Syrianska
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Boden
Boden
11/5/2023Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 29Mellringe IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Örebro Syrianska47%
×Draw24%
Boden30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Örebro Syrianska
1.73
Boden
1.33

Örebro Syrianska creates 30% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 30 away

creates per match

Örebro Syrianska
1.26
Boden
1.23

allows per match

Örebro Syrianska
1.44
Boden
2.20

finishing

Örebro Syrianska+0.00on par
Boden+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Örebro Syrianska ↓

Boden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Örebro Syrianska or draw
70%
Örebro Syrianska or Boden
76%
Draw or Boden
53%

Winning margin

Örebro Syrianska wins by 2+
25%
Boden wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Örebro Syrianska 1+ goals
82%
Örebro Syrianska 2+ goals
52%
Örebro Syrianska 3+ goals
25%
Boden 1+ goals
74%
Boden 2+ goals
38%
Boden 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Örebro Syrianska (draw refunded)
61%
Boden (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Örebro Syrianska at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.44 · 90 matches

Boden away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Örebro Syrianska attack 1.26 + Boden defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.73

Boden attack 1.23 + Örebro Syrianska defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Örebro Syrianska scores more
47%
level
24%
Boden scores more
30%

Örebro Syrianska at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Örebro Syrianska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Örebro Syrianska vs Boden

Örebro Syrianska beat Boden 4-0 in Ettan - Norra on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Mellringe IP in Örebro.