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Boden vs Örebro Syrianska — Ettan - Norra 2019

Boden
Boden
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Örebro Syrianska
Örebro Syrianska
5/7/2023Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 6Bodens Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Boden37%
×Draw24%
Örebro Syrianska39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boden
1.55
Örebro Syrianska
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 90 away

creates per match

Boden
1.13
Örebro Syrianska
1.40

allows per match

Boden
1.80
Örebro Syrianska
1.98

finishing

Boden+0.00on par
Örebro Syrianska+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boden ↓

Örebro Syrianska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Boden or draw
61%
Boden or Örebro Syrianska
76%
Draw or Örebro Syrianska
63%

Winning margin

Boden wins by 2+
18%
Örebro Syrianska wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Boden 1+ goals
79%
Boden 2+ goals
46%
Boden 3+ goals
20%
Örebro Syrianska 1+ goals
80%
Örebro Syrianska 2+ goals
47%
Örebro Syrianska 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Boden (draw refunded)
49%
Örebro Syrianska (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boden at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

Örebro Syrianska away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.98 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boden attack 1.13 + Örebro Syrianska defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.55

Örebro Syrianska attack 1.40 + Boden defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Boden scores more
37%
level
24%
Örebro Syrianska scores more
39%

Örebro Syrianska at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Örebro Syrianska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: Boden 0–2 Örebro Syrianska

Örebro Syrianska beat Boden 2-0 in Ettan - Norra on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Bodens Energi Arena in Boden.