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Orebro SK vs IK brage — Superettan 2018

Orebro SK
Orebro SK
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
IK brage
IK brage
5/8/2026SuperettanSuperettan · Round 6Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Orebro SK42%
×Draw26%
IK brage32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orebro SK
1.40
IK brage
1.19

Orebro SK creates 18% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 127 away

creates per match

Orebro SK
1.36
IK brage
1.30

allows per match

Orebro SK
1.07
IK brage
1.43

finishing

Orebro SK+0.00on par
IK brage+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orebro SK ↓

IK brage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Orebro SK or draw
68%
Orebro SK or IK brage
74%
Draw or IK brage
58%

Winning margin

Orebro SK wins by 2+
20%
IK brage wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Orebro SK 1+ goals
75%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
41%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
17%
IK brage 1+ goals
70%
IK brage 2+ goals
33%
IK brage 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Orebro SK (draw refunded)
57%
IK brage (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orebro SK at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 67 matches

IK brage away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.43 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orebro SK attack 1.36 + IK brage defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

IK brage attack 1.30 + Orebro SK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Orebro SK scores more
42%
level
26%
IK brage scores more
32%

Orebro SK at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orebro SK vs IK brage

IK brage beat Orebro SK 3-0 in Superettan on May 8, 2026.

The match was played at Behrn Arena in Orebro.