IK brage 2–1 Orebro SK: Result & Stats

IK brage

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Orebro SK

3/7/2026

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Domnarvsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

IK brage41%

×Draw26%

Orebro SK34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IK brageExpected goals in this matchOrebro SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.28

IK brage

1.43

Orebro SK

1.28

IK brage creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 20 away

1.71

creates per match

1.85

0.71

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

IK brage

1.71

Orebro SK

1.85

allows per match

IK brage

0.71

Orebro SK

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IK brage+0.00on par

Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK brage ↓

Orebro SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

IK brage or draw

66%

IK brage or Orebro SK

74%

Draw or Orebro SK

59%

Winning margin

IK brage wins by 2+

19%

Orebro SK wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

IK brage 1+ goals

76%

IK brage 2+ goals

42%

IK brage 3+ goals

17%

Orebro SK 1+ goals

72%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

37%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

IK brage (draw refunded)

55%

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK brage at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK brage attack 1.71 + Orebro SK defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.43

Orebro SK attack 1.85 + IK brage defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

IK brage scores more

41%

level

26%

Orebro SK scores more

34%

IK brage at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "IK brage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff