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Orebro SK vs Hammarby FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Orebro SK
Orebro SK
FT
3 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
3/2/2026Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Orebro SK16%
×Draw18%
Hammarby FF66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orebro SK
1.19
Hammarby FF
2.54

Hammarby FF creates 113% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

creates per match

Orebro SK
1.50
Hammarby FF
2.82

allows per match

Orebro SK
2.25
Hammarby FF
0.88

finishing

Orebro SK+0.00on par
Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orebro SK ↓

Hammarby FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Orebro SK or draw
34%
Orebro SK or Hammarby FF
82%
Draw or Hammarby FF
84%

Winning margin

Orebro SK wins by 2+
6%
Hammarby FF wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Orebro SK 1+ goals
70%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
33%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
12%
Hammarby FF 1+ goals
92%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
72%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Orebro SK (draw refunded)
20%
Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orebro SK at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 2.82, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orebro SK attack 1.50 + Hammarby FF defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.19

Hammarby FF attack 2.82 + Orebro SK defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Orebro SK scores more
16%
level
18%
Hammarby FF scores more
66%

Hammarby FF at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orebro SK vs Hammarby FF

Hammarby FF beat Orebro SK 5-3 in Svenska Cupen on March 2, 2026.

The match was played at Behrn Arena.