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Orebro SK vs Hammarby FF — Allsvenskan 2018

Orebro SK
Orebro SK
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
12/6/2020AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 30Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Orebro SK34%
×Draw25%
Hammarby FF41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orebro SK
1.31
Hammarby FF
1.48

Hammarby FF creates 13% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 126 away

creates per match

Orebro SK
1.28
Hammarby FF
1.45

allows per match

Orebro SK
1.50
Hammarby FF
1.33

finishing

Orebro SK+0.00on par
Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orebro SK ↓

Hammarby FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Orebro SK or draw
59%
Orebro SK or Hammarby FF
75%
Draw or Hammarby FF
66%

Winning margin

Orebro SK wins by 2+
15%
Hammarby FF wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Orebro SK 1+ goals
73%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
38%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
14%
Hammarby FF 1+ goals
77%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
43%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Orebro SK (draw refunded)
45%
Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orebro SK at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orebro SK attack 1.28 + Hammarby FF defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Hammarby FF attack 1.45 + Orebro SK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Orebro SK scores more
34%
level
25%
Hammarby FF scores more
41%

Hammarby FF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orebro SK vs Hammarby FF

Orebro SK beat Hammarby FF 2-1 in Allsvenskan on December 6, 2020.

The match was played at Behrn Arena in Örebro.