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Orebro SK vs Gefle IF — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Orebro SK
Orebro SK
CANC
12:00
Gefle IF
Gefle IF
2/14/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Orebro SK80%
×Draw13%
Gefle IF7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orebro SK
2.88
Gefle IF
0.75

Orebro SK creates 284% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Orebro SK
1.75
Gefle IF
1.00

allows per match

Orebro SK
0.50
Gefle IF
4.00

finishing

Orebro SK+0.00on par
Gefle IF+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orebro SK ↓

Gefle IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Orebro SK or draw
93%
Orebro SK or Gefle IF
87%
Draw or Gefle IF
20%

Winning margin

Orebro SK wins by 2+
60%
Gefle IF wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Orebro SK 1+ goals
94%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
78%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
54%
Gefle IF 1+ goals
53%
Gefle IF 2+ goals
17%
Gefle IF 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Orebro SK (draw refunded)
92%
Gefle IF (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orebro SK at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Gefle IF away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orebro SK attack 1.75 + Gefle IF defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.88

Gefle IF attack 1.00 + Orebro SK defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Orebro SK scores more
80%
level
13%
Gefle IF scores more
7%

Orebro SK at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Orebro SK vs Gefle IF — Match Preview

Orebro SK face Gefle IF on February 14, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.