Gefle IF 2–1 Orebro SK: Result & Stats | Superettan

Gefle IF

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Orebro SK

L. Englund 72'

A. Lundin 70'

K. Holmberg 5'

8/19/2023

Superettan · Round 19Gavlevallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Gefle IF42%

×Draw24%

Orebro SK34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gefle IFExpected goals in this matchOrebro SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.43

Gefle IF

1.61

Orebro SK

1.43

Gefle IF creates 13% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 68 away

1.43

creates per match

1.09

1.76

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Gefle IF

1.43

Orebro SK

1.09

allows per match

Gefle IF

1.76

Orebro SK

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gefle IF+0.00on par

Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gefle IF ↓

Orebro SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Gefle IF or draw

66%

Gefle IF or Orebro SK

76%

Draw or Orebro SK

58%

Winning margin

Gefle IF wins by 2+

21%

Orebro SK wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Gefle IF 1+ goals

80%

Gefle IF 2+ goals

48%

Gefle IF 3+ goals

22%

Orebro SK 1+ goals

76%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

42%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Gefle IF (draw refunded)

55%

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gefle IF at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.76 · 46 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.79 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gefle IF attack 1.43 + Orebro SK defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.61

Orebro SK attack 1.09 + Gefle IF defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gefle IF scores more

42%

level

24%

Orebro SK scores more

34%

Gefle IF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gefle IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

K. Holmberg

34'

Valgeir Valgeirsson

45+1'

K. Persson← N. Håkansson

55'

Oscar Lundin

66'

A. Bark← D. Seger

67'

Kevin Walker

69'

William Eskelinen

70'

A. Lundin← C. Capotondi

70'

A. Yakoub← A. Edqvist

70'

A. Lundin

72'

L. Englund

77'

D. Björnquist← V. Valgeirsson

77'

V. Backman← J. Larsson

84'

E. Barsoum← K. Walker

85'

Robin Wallinder

90+4'

Daniel Hultqvist

90+5'

J. Hjelte← L. Englund

Possession

Shots

Statistics

GefleOrebro

Overview

51%Possession49%

2Total Shots4

4Corners7

5Fouls5

Shots

2Total Shots4

2On Target2

Passing

51%Possession49%

Discipline

5Fouls5

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0