Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Orebro SK vs Gais — Superettan 2026

Orebro SK
Orebro SK
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gais
Gais
7/31/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 16Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Orebro SK40%
×Draw27%
Gais32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orebro SK
1.31
Gais
1.14

Orebro SK creates 15% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 76 away

creates per match

Orebro SK
1.36
Gais
1.21

allows per match

Orebro SK
1.07
Gais
1.26

finishing

Orebro SK+0.00on par
Gais+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orebro SK ↓

Gais →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Orebro SK or draw
68%
Orebro SK or Gais
73%
Draw or Gais
60%

Winning margin

Orebro SK wins by 2+
18%
Gais wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Orebro SK 1+ goals
73%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
38%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
14%
Gais 1+ goals
68%
Gais 2+ goals
32%
Gais 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Orebro SK (draw refunded)
56%
Gais (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orebro SK at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 67 matches

Gais away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orebro SK attack 1.36 + Gais defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Gais attack 1.21 + Orebro SK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Orebro SK scores more
40%
level
27%
Gais scores more
32%

Orebro SK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
Axel Norén
45+1'
Sebastian Crona
59'
Gustav Lundgren
63'
Niclas Andersen
65'
Kevin Walker
68'
E. Binaku← J. Åberg
73'
Adam Bark
73'
Alexander Ahl Holmstrom
75'
David Seger
79'
M. Çelik← A. Ahl-Holmström
79'
Jonas Lindberg← R. Friday
80'
D. Björnquist← S. Crona
80'
V. Backman← E. Barsoum
85'
Daniel Bjornkvist
87'
H. Shagaxle← A. Bark
89'
V. Alexandersson← Julius Lindberg
89'
C. Chika Chidi← G. Lundgren

Possession

46%Orebro

Shots

10Orebro

Statistics

OrebroGais
Overview
46%Possession54%
10Total Shots12
9Corners4
12Fouls13
Shots
10Total Shots12
2On Target2
3Off Target6
5Blocked4
Passing
46%Possession54%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls13
5Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1

Superettan: Orebro SK 0–0 Gais

Orebro SK and Gais drew 0-0 in Superettan on July 31, 2023.

Gais controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Behrn Arena in Örebro.