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Gais vs Orebro SK — Superettan 2026

Gais
Gais
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Orebro SK
Orebro SK
A. Ahl-Holmström 83'
R. Friday 78'
Julius Lindberg 31'
M. Çelik 9'
6/11/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 12Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Gais46%
×Draw25%
Orebro SK29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gais
1.52
Orebro SK
1.15

Gais creates 32% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 68 away

creates per match

Gais
1.25
Orebro SK
1.09

allows per match

Gais
1.21
Orebro SK
1.79

finishing

Gais+0.00on par
Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

Orebro SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gais or draw
71%
Gais or Orebro SK
75%
Draw or Orebro SK
54%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+
23%
Orebro SK wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals
78%
Gais 2+ goals
45%
Gais 3+ goals
20%
Orebro SK 1+ goals
68%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
32%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)
61%
Orebro SK (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.21 · 76 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.79 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 1.25 + Orebro SK defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.52

Orebro SK attack 1.09 + Gais defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gais scores more
46%
level
25%
Orebro SK scores more
29%

Gais at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
M. Çelik
31'
Julius Lindberg
46'
N. Bergmark← A. Andrésson
46'
V. Valgeirsson← D. Hultqvist
53'
R. Friday← J. Åberg
60'
August Wangberg
65'
N. Andersén← E. Binaku
65'
A. Henriksson← Jonas Lindberg
66'
Anes Cardaklija
68'
A. Fisic← L. Shlimon
78'
R. Friday
80'
V. Alexandersson← M. Çelik
80'
A. Ahl-Holmström← Julius Lindberg
83'
A. Ahl-Holmström
86'
D. Björnquist← D. Seger
89'
Nasiru Moro

Possession

51%Gais

Shots

15Gais

Statistics

GaisOrebro
Overview
51%Possession49%
15Total Shots10
6Corners3
13Fouls6
Shots
15Total Shots10
10On Target6
5Off Target3
Passing
51%Possession49%
Goalkeeping
6Saves6
Discipline
13Fouls6
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Gais 4 – 0 Orebro SK

Gais beat Orebro SK 4-0 in Superettan on June 11, 2023.

Goals: M. Çelik (9'), Julius Lindberg (31'), R. Friday (78'), A. Ahl-Holmström (83').

Gais controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Göteborg.