Orebro SK 1–1 AIK Stockholm: Result & Stats

Orebro SK

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

AIK Stockholm

D. Collander 26'

N. Bahoui 61'

7/26/2021

Allsvenskan · Round 12Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Orebro SK34%

×Draw26%

AIK Stockholm40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orebro SKExpected goals in this matchAIK Stockholm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.39

Orebro SK

1.28

AIK Stockholm

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 128 away

1.28

creates per match

1.27

1.50

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Orebro SK

1.28

AIK Stockholm

1.27

allows per match

Orebro SK

1.50

AIK Stockholm

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orebro SK+0.00on par

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orebro SK ↓

AIK Stockholm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Orebro SK or draw

60%

Orebro SK or AIK Stockholm

74%

Draw or AIK Stockholm

66%

Winning margin

Orebro SK wins by 2+

15%

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Orebro SK 1+ goals

72%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

37%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

14%

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

75%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

40%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

47%

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orebro SK at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.28 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orebro SK attack 1.28 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.28

AIK Stockholm attack 1.27 + Orebro SK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Orebro SK scores more

34%

level

26%

AIK Stockholm scores more

40%

AIK Stockholm at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. Larsson

AIK Stockholm · M

8.3

Match Events

14'

Eric Ouma

26'

D. Collander

46'

D. Björnkvist← H. Ali

57'

Z. Elbouzedi← S. Ylätupa

61'

N. Bahoui↳ S. Larsson

68'

Johan Maartensson

70'

N. Gerzić← D. Collander

70'

R. Gall← D. Seger

70'

H. Goitom← N. Stefanelli

77'

M. Broberg← K. Walker

81'

Alexander Milošević

81'

E. Björndahl← J. Mårtensson

82'

Bobby Allain

90+3'

Andreas Skovgaard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrebroAIK

Overview

39%Possession61%

13Total Shots27

4Corners13

16Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots27

5On Target9

5Off Target11

3Blocked7

9Inside Box20

4Outside Box7

Passing

39%Possession61%

305Total Passes470

221Accurate Passes391

72%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

7Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1