AIK Stockholm 3–1 Orebro SK: Result & Stats

AIK Stockholm

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Orebro SK

S. Gustafsson 88'

Z. Yohanna 58', 24'

E. Hrastovina 76'

3/28/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

AIK Stockholm34%

×Draw24%

Orebro SK43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK StockholmExpected goals in this matchOrebro SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.69

AIK Stockholm

1.47

Orebro SK

1.69

Orebro SK creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.56

creates per match

1.50

1.89

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

AIK Stockholm

1.56

Orebro SK

1.50

allows per match

AIK Stockholm

1.89

Orebro SK

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Orebro SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw

57%

AIK Stockholm or Orebro SK

76%

Draw or Orebro SK

66%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

16%

Orebro SK wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

77%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

43%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

18%

Orebro SK 1+ goals

82%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

50%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

44%

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.56 + Orebro SK defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.47

Orebro SK attack 1.50 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more

34%

level

24%

Orebro SK scores more

43%

Orebro SK at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Z. Yohanna

36'

58'

Z. Yohanna

63'

H. Dana← F. Wahlstrom

71'

D. Salihovic← J. Ortmark

71'

E. Hrastovina← K. Holmberg

71'

A. Yasin← S. Wikman

74'

M. Wowoah←

76'

E. Hrastovina

88'

S. Gustafsson

90+2'

AIK

Orebro

75

22

16

32

11

7

▼

Wikman

5

▼

Ortmark

27

Ibrahimbe

21

▼

Wahlstrom

9

Yakoub

17

▼

30

4

5

8

10

18

20

21

25

36

⚽2

Yohanna

48

Kouame

Manager: Jose Riveiro

AIK Stockholm substitutes

SosaFaqaCamaraHelmVallgrenMessingAnderssonKarimatsengaAyariGustafssonShilla

Manager: Patrik Haginge

63'▲H. Dana←▼F. Wahlstrom

71'▲D. Salihovic←▼J. Ortmark

71'▲E. Hrastovina←▼K. Holmberg

71'▲A. Yasin←▼S. Wikman

74'▲M. Wowoah←▼—

Orebro SK substitutes

30Runheim12Salihovic14Dana15Astvald18Hrastovina23Dickson28Wowoah26Catic45Almkvist99Yasin