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Ordino vs Atlètic Amèrica — 1a Divisió 2019

Ordino
Ordino
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlètic Amèrica
Atlètic Amèrica
2/3/20241a Divisió1a Divisió · Round 15Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ordino60%
×Draw20%
Atlètic Amèrica20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ordino
2.28
Atlètic Amèrica
1.26

Ordino creates 81% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ordino
1.13
Atlètic Amèrica
0.64

allows per match

Ordino
1.88
Atlètic Amèrica
3.43

finishing

Ordino+0.00on par
Atlètic Amèrica+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ordino ↓

Atlètic Amèrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ordino or draw
80%
Ordino or Atlètic Amèrica
80%
Draw or Atlètic Amèrica
40%

Winning margin

Ordino wins by 2+
38%
Atlètic Amèrica wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ordino 1+ goals
90%
Ordino 2+ goals
66%
Ordino 3+ goals
39%
Atlètic Amèrica 1+ goals
72%
Atlètic Amèrica 2+ goals
36%
Atlètic Amèrica 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ordino (draw refunded)
75%
Atlètic Amèrica (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ordino at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 77 matches

Atlètic Amèrica away — creates 0.64, concedes 3.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ordino attack 1.13 + Atlètic Amèrica defence 3.43 → ÷2 → 2.28

Atlètic Amèrica attack 0.64 + Ordino defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ordino scores more
60%
level
20%
Atlètic Amèrica scores more
20%

Ordino at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ordino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisió: Ordino 1–0 Atlètic Amèrica

Ordino beat Atlètic Amèrica 1-0 in 1a Divisió on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1 in Santa Coloma.