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Atlètic Amèrica vs Ordino — 1a Divisió 2019

Atlètic Amèrica
Atlètic Amèrica
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Ordino
Ordino
11/5/20231a Divisió1a Divisió · Round 7Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Atlètic Amèrica26%
×Draw21%
Ordino53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlètic Amèrica
1.40
Ordino
2.08

Ordino creates 49% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 80 away

creates per match

Atlètic Amèrica
1.00
Ordino
1.00

allows per match

Atlètic Amèrica
3.15
Ordino
1.79

finishing

Atlètic Amèrica+0.00on par
Ordino+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlètic Amèrica ↓

Ordino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Atlètic Amèrica or draw
47%
Atlètic Amèrica or Ordino
79%
Draw or Ordino
74%

Winning margin

Atlètic Amèrica wins by 2+
11%
Ordino wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Atlètic Amèrica 1+ goals
75%
Atlètic Amèrica 2+ goals
41%
Atlètic Amèrica 3+ goals
17%
Ordino 1+ goals
87%
Ordino 2+ goals
61%
Ordino 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Atlètic Amèrica (draw refunded)
33%
Ordino (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlètic Amèrica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

Ordino away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlètic Amèrica attack 1.00 + Ordino defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.40

Ordino attack 1.00 + Atlètic Amèrica defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atlètic Amèrica scores more
26%
level
21%
Ordino scores more
53%

Ordino at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ordino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisió: Atlètic Amèrica 1–2 Ordino

Ordino beat Atlètic Amèrica 2-1 in 1a Divisió on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1 in Santa Coloma.