Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ordabasy vs Yelimay Semey — Premier League 2021

Ordabasy
Ordabasy
Preview
15:00
Yelimay Semey
Yelimay Semey
7/19/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Stadion Kazhymukan Munaitpasov
Big match
45%
Ordabasy
model favours
45%24%31%

71% of Yelimay Semey’s goals come after the 75th minute

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Ordabasy45%
×Draw24%
Yelimay Semey31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ordabasy
1.61
Yelimay Semey
1.29

Ordabasy creates 25% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 33 away

creates per match

Ordabasy
1.81
Yelimay Semey
1.64

allows per match

Ordabasy
0.95
Yelimay Semey
1.42

finishing

Ordabasy+0.00on par
Yelimay Semey+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ordabasy ↓

Yelimay Semey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ordabasy or draw
69%
Ordabasy or Yelimay Semey
76%
Draw or Yelimay Semey
55%

Winning margin

Ordabasy wins by 2+
23%
Yelimay Semey wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ordabasy 1+ goals
80%
Ordabasy 2+ goals
48%
Ordabasy 3+ goals
22%
Yelimay Semey 1+ goals
72%
Yelimay Semey 2+ goals
37%
Yelimay Semey 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ordabasy (draw refunded)
59%
Yelimay Semey (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ordabasy at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.95 · 73 matches

Yelimay Semey away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ordabasy attack 1.81 + Yelimay Semey defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.61

Yelimay Semey attack 1.64 + Ordabasy defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ordabasy scores more
45%
level
24%
Yelimay Semey scores more
31%

Ordabasy at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ordabasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Yelimay Semey have scored in 13 games running
  • Ordabasy have scored in 10 games running
  • Both teams score in 85% of Yelimay Semey’s matches
  • Yelimay Semey score first in only 31% of matches
  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings
  • 69% of Yelimay Semey’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ordabasy
WLWWW
Semey
DDWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ordabasy face Yelimay Semey (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Ordabasy hosting Yelimay Semey. Match starts July 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ordabasy host Yelimay Semey at Stadion Kazhymukan Munaitpasov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.