Ordabasy 2–1 Akzhayik: Result & Stats

Ordabasy

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Akzhayik

4/5/2021

Premier League · Round 3Stadion Qajimuqan Muñaytpasov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ordabasy56%

×Draw26%

Akzhayik19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrdabasyExpected goals in this matchAkzhayik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.78

Ordabasy

1.55

Akzhayik

0.78

Ordabasy creates 99% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 26 away

1.73

creates per match

0.65

0.90

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Ordabasy

1.73

Akzhayik

0.65

allows per match

Ordabasy

0.90

Akzhayik

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ordabasy+0.00on par

Akzhayik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ordabasy ↓

Akzhayik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ordabasy or draw

81%

Ordabasy or Akzhayik

74%

Draw or Akzhayik

44%

Winning margin

Ordabasy wins by 2+

29%

Akzhayik wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ordabasy 1+ goals

79%

Ordabasy 2+ goals

46%

Ordabasy 3+ goals

20%

Akzhayik 1+ goals

54%

Akzhayik 2+ goals

18%

Akzhayik 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ordabasy (draw refunded)

75%

Akzhayik (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ordabasy at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.90 · 97 matches

Akzhayik away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ordabasy attack 1.73 + Akzhayik defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.55

Akzhayik attack 0.65 + Ordabasy defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ordabasy scores more

56%

level

26%

Akzhayik scores more

19%

Ordabasy at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ordabasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff