Akzhayik 4–4 Ordabasy: Result & Stats | Cup

Akzhayik

AET

4 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Ordabasy

11/12/2022

Cup · FinalAstana Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Akzhayik48%

×Draw24%

Ordabasy28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkzhayikExpected goals in this matchOrdabasy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.25

Akzhayik

1.71

Ordabasy

1.25

Akzhayik creates 37% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

2.54

creates per match

1.65

0.85

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Akzhayik

2.54

Ordabasy

1.65

allows per match

Akzhayik

0.85

Ordabasy

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akzhayik+0.00on par

Ordabasy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akzhayik ↓

Ordabasy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Akzhayik or draw

72%

Akzhayik or Ordabasy

76%

Draw or Ordabasy

52%

Winning margin

Akzhayik wins by 2+

26%

Ordabasy wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Akzhayik 1+ goals

82%

Akzhayik 2+ goals

51%

Akzhayik 3+ goals

24%

Ordabasy 1+ goals

71%

Ordabasy 2+ goals

36%

Ordabasy 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Akzhayik (draw refunded)

63%

Ordabasy (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akzhayik at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Ordabasy away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akzhayik attack 2.54 + Ordabasy defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ordabasy attack 1.65 + Akzhayik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Akzhayik scores more

48%

level

24%

Ordabasy scores more

28%

Akzhayik at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Akzhayik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff