Orbit College 1–1 Marumo Gallants: Result & Stats

Orbit College

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Marumo Gallants

T. Moleleki 10'

S. Sithole 65'

9/20/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 7Olympia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Orbit College35%

×Draw30%

Marumo Gallants35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orbit CollegeExpected goals in this matchMarumo Gallants

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.04

Orbit College

1.05

Marumo Gallants

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 76 away

0.65

creates per match

0.72

1.35

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Orbit College

0.65

Marumo Gallants

0.72

allows per match

Orbit College

1.35

Marumo Gallants

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orbit College+0.00on par

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orbit College ↓

Marumo Gallants →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Orbit College or draw

65%

Orbit College or Marumo Gallants

70%

Draw or Marumo Gallants

65%

Winning margin

Orbit College wins by 2+

14%

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Orbit College 1+ goals

65%

Orbit College 2+ goals

28%

Orbit College 3+ goals

9%

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

65%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

28%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Orbit College (draw refunded)

50%

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orbit College at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Marumo Gallants away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orbit College attack 0.65 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.05

Marumo Gallants attack 0.72 + Orbit College defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Orbit College scores more

35%

level

30%

Marumo Gallants scores more

35%

Orbit College at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Orbit College will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Saleng

Orbit College · F

7.9

Match Events

10'

T. Moleleki↳ M. Saleng

42'

Mpambaniso Monde

45+2'

Thuso Moleleki

46'

S. Nhlapo← S. Mbhele

46'

D. Msendami← J. Clifford

46'

S. Sithole← E. Manaka

48'

49'

62'

65'

67'

B. Mabuza← M. Mpambaniso

79'

K. Sithole← T. Motloung

81'

T. Matsemela← T. Moleleki

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrbitMarumo

Overview

42%Possession58%

11Total Shots8

6Corners2

11Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots8

3On Target4

5Off Target3

3Blocked1

4Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

314Total Passes466

221Accurate Passes381

70%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides7