Orbit College 0–2 Mamelodi Sundowns: Result & Stats

Orbit College

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Mamelodi Sundowns

I. Rayners 60' (pen)

M. Reisinho 48'

3/10/2026

Premier Soccer League · Round 21Olympia Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Orbit College17%

×Draw27%

Mamelodi Sundowns56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orbit CollegeExpected goals in this matchMamelodi Sundowns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.64

1.44

Orbit College

0.64

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.44

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 125% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 122 away

0.65

creates per match

1.52

1.35

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Orbit College

0.65

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.52

allows per match

Orbit College

1.35

Mamelodi Sundowns

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orbit College+0.00on par

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orbit College ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–118%

0–213%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Orbit College or draw

44%

Orbit College or Mamelodi Sundowns

73%

Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns

83%

Winning margin

Orbit College wins by 2+

4%

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Orbit College 1+ goals

47%

Orbit College 2+ goals

14%

Orbit College 3+ goals

3%

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals

76%

Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals

42%

Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Orbit College (draw refunded)

23%

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orbit College at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.63 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orbit College attack 0.65 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.64

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.52 + Orbit College defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Orbit College scores more

17%

level

27%

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more

56%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

K. Cupido

Mamelodi Sundowns · D

7.9

Match Events

46'

A. Modiba← F. Basadien

48'

M. Reisinho↳ N. Santos

57'

Gomolemo Khoto

60'

I. RaynersPenalty

70'

A. Batsi← L. Kapinga

71'

Khuliso Mudau

71'

M. Wagaba← G. Khoto

71'

K. Mkhabela← B. Onyango

71'

B. Leon← Arthur Sales

71'

T. Morena← K. Mudau

71'

T. Matthews← N. Santos

78'

80'

82'

83'

90+2'

90+1'

L. Lesako← B. Motshwari

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrbitMamelodi

Overview

23%Possession77%

2Total Shots17

3Corners2

11Fouls10

Shots

2Total Shots17

1On Target3

1Off Target8

0Blocked6

1Inside Box14

1Outside Box3

Passing

23%Possession77%

219Total Passes736

155Accurate Passes679

71%Pass Accuracy92%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3