Mamelodi Sundowns 2–0 Orbit College: Result & Stats

Mamelodi Sundowns

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Orbit College

B. Leon 65'

Arthur Sales 22'

1/19/2026

Premier Soccer League · Round 14Loftus Versfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns63%

×Draw23%

Orbit College14%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mamelodi SundownsExpected goals in this matchOrbit College

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.63

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.69

Orbit College

0.63

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 168% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 17 away

1.98

creates per match

0.71

0.54

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.98

Orbit College

0.71

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns

0.54

Orbit College

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Orbit College+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Orbit College →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw

86%

Mamelodi Sundowns or Orbit College

77%

Draw or Orbit College

37%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+

36%

Orbit College wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals

82%

Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals

50%

Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals

24%

Orbit College 1+ goals

47%

Orbit College 2+ goals

13%

Orbit College 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)

82%

Orbit College (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.54 · 125 matches

Orbit College away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.98 + Orbit College defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.69

Orbit College attack 0.71 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more

63%

level

23%

Orbit College scores more

14%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Arthur Sales

Mamelodi Sundowns · M

8.2

Match Events

22'

Arthur Sales

46'

B. Leon← L. Mothiba

46'

B. Ralani← I. Ramosala

57'

N. Santos← T. Matthews

59'

S. Nkomo← C. Chibwe

59'

A. Lukhele← L. Mahlatsi

61'

Thapelo Mokwena

62'

M. Allende← J. Adams

62'

T. Zwane← K. Lethlaku

65'

B. Leon↳ T. Sibiya

70'

P. Mahlangu← T. Mokwena

72'

Thapelo Morena

72'

M. Reisinho← T. Morena

79'

S. Mabele← L. Modimoeng

81'

Arthur Sales

85'

Sphelele Mkhulise

90+1'

Ayanda Lukhele

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MamelodiOrbit

Overview

75%Possession25%

10Total Shots5

4Corners0

14Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots5

6On Target0

3Off Target5

1Blocked0

7Inside Box4

3Outside Box1

Passing

75%Possession25%

636Total Passes205

575Accurate Passes155

90%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides7