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Orbit College vs Magesi — Premier Soccer League 2018

Orbit College
Orbit College
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Magesi
Magesi
M. Wagaba 61'
T. Moleleki 52'
M. Saleng 45' (pen)
E. Chirambadare 70'
11/1/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 11Olympia Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Orbit College36%
×Draw33%
Magesi31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orbit College
0.94
Magesi
0.85

Orbit College creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 31 away

creates per match

Orbit College
0.65
Magesi
0.35

allows per match

Orbit College
1.35
Magesi
1.23

finishing

Orbit College+0.00on par
Magesi+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orbit College ↓

Magesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Orbit College or draw
69%
Orbit College or Magesi
67%
Draw or Magesi
64%

Winning margin

Orbit College wins by 2+
13%
Magesi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Orbit College 1+ goals
61%
Orbit College 2+ goals
24%
Orbit College 3+ goals
7%
Magesi 1+ goals
57%
Magesi 2+ goals
21%
Magesi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Orbit College (draw refunded)
54%
Magesi (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orbit College at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Magesi away — creates 0.35, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orbit College attack 0.65 + Magesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.94

Magesi attack 0.35 + Orbit College defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Orbit College scores more
36%
level
33%
Magesi scores more
31%

Orbit College at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Orbit College will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
E. ChirambadareMagesiMagesi · M
9.5

Match Events

-5'
Lehlohonolo Mtshali
26'
Katlego Mkhabela
30'
Lethabo Modimoeng
32'
Lehlohonolo Mtshali
45'
M. SalengPenalty
52'
T. Moleleki↳ M. Saleng
59'
T. Sibanyoni← L. Mtshali
61'
M. Wagaba↳ T. Moleleki
63'
L. Lesako← T. Moleleki
64'
Katlego Mkhabela
64'
Katlego Mkhabela
70'
N. Ngiba← L. Modimoeng
70'
E. Chirambadare↳ L. Mokone
71'
K. Mahlasela← K. Mosadi
71'
D. Mofokeng← T. Makgoga
71'
A. Seseane← M. Vandala
80'
A. Lukhele← M. Wagaba
81'
P. Tyongwana← M. Saleng
84'
Lebohang Lesako
88'
Atisang Batsi 
89'
K. Mariba← S. Darpoh

Possession

40%Orbit

Shots

8Orbit

Pass accuracy

47%Orbit

Statistics

OrbitMagesi
Overview
40%Possession60%
8Total Shots18
2Corners7
13Fouls12
Shots
8Total Shots18
5On Target5
1Off Target11
2Blocked2
6Inside Box15
2Outside Box3
Passing
40%Possession60%
295Total Passes427
217Accurate Passes355
74%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls12
5Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Orbit College vs Magesi

Orbit College beat Magesi 3-1 in Premier Soccer League on November 1, 2025.

Goals: M. Saleng (45' pen), T. Moleleki (52'), M. Wagaba (61'), E. Chirambadare (70').

Magesi controlled possession (60%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Olympia Park in Rustenburg.